Oil Holding Steady After Weekly Rally

Crude is trading just below close levels to hold on to the weekly gains but still within the wider 78$/bbl to 88$/bbl range seen so far this year. The market balances optimism for a recovery in China oil demand and the expected Russian crude production cuts in March against resilient inflationary pressures and global economic growth uncertainty.

• Brent MAY 23 down -0.1% at 84.66$/bbl
• WTI APR 23 down -0.1% at 78.08$/bbl
• Gasoil MAR 23 down 0% at 849$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.03$/bbl at -6.44$/bbl
• The prompt Brent spread has rallied this week to the highest since November but is holding just below yesterday’s highs so far today. Longer dated spreads have also seen strength driven by the potential for higher China demand and supply risks. The Brent June23-Dec23 is up from a low of 1.92$/bbl on 22 Feb to a high yesterday at 3.02$/bbl while Dec23-Dec24 has rallied from 3.11$/bbl to 5.07$/bbl in the same period.
  • Brent MAY 23-JUN 23 down -0.02$/bbl at 0.64$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 down -0.05$/bbl at 2.85$/bbl
• Gasoil rallied yesterday on reports of a fire at the BP Rotterdam refinery but reversed the gains later in the day. Fuel output from the refinery may be hit after the fire and could coincide with other NW European refinery maintenance.
• Gasoil spreads are still trending higher supported by an expected reduction in gasoil shipments from China in March, the US and Asia refinery maintenance season, Russian product supply uncertainty and higher transportation costs due to longer shipment distances. Stronger than expected Russian output and above normal storage levels are limiting upside moves. ARA Gasoil stocks yesterday showed only a small dip on the week and Bloomberg reported Russia plans to increase seaborne diesel exports in March to a new monthly high.
  • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 35.2$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 42.2$/bbl