Oil Markets Largely Hold Thursday Gain

Oil markets balance greater signs of OPEC+ compliance against IEA demand outlooks that show growth losing steam through 2024 while Red Sea escalations remain at high levels.

• A weaker US dollar and a further Red Sea attack supported oil on Thursday.
• Brent APR 24 down -0.1% at 82.75$/bbl
• WTI MAR 24 up 0.1% at 78.07$/bbl
• Gasoil MAR 24 down -0.8% at 856.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.04$/bbl at -5.18$/bbl
• In 2024 as a whole, the IEA continues to see global demand increasing by 1.2 million barrels a day — just half the rate of last year.
• Supplies outside the OPEC+ alliance are on track to increase by 1.6 million barrels a day, led by the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana according to the IEA.
• Crude is trading towards the upper end of its traded range of this year. Both WTI and Brent are on course for a fourth weekly gain in the past five weeks.
• Russia’s crude oil exports are expected to rise in the near-term as the country cuts refinery throughput in the wake of Ukrainian drone strikes on facilities, according to Kpler.
• Russia has nearly reached its target for voluntary reductions for the first time since making the pledge last year, according to Bloomberg calculations.
• BP’s Whiting, Indiana, refinery will take at least until the end of February to restore normal operations after the power loss on 1 February.
• US gasoline crack down -0.2$/bbl at 18.89$/bbl
• US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 40.17$/bbl
• Singapore’s middle distillate stocks climbed to a three-month high in the week to Feb. 14.
• Conflict between Hezbollah and Israeli has intensified this week, keeping fears of a wider war a stronger possibility.