Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Prices Drift Down

Crude prices have slid back today as much of the geopolitical risk premium surrounding Iranian strikes on Israel had already been priced in during the previous week, while concerns thus far for any impacts to oil supply have been less prominent.

• Brent JUN 24 down 1.3% at 89.27$/bbl
• WTI MAY 24 down 1.3% at 84.55$/bbl
• The G7 nations condemned Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday, aiming for further sanctions but notably not mentioning oil.
• Axios reporting that Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told his US counterpart Lloyd Austin III that "Israel has no choice but to respond to the unprecedented missile and drone attack launched by Iran over the weekend"
• The Iranian attack on Israel was well known about prior to its launch, leading to a lack of price impact on Monday: Energy Aspects Head of Research Amrita Sen.
• Iran’s strike on Israel is not expected to disrupt oil markets: DNB Markets' Helge Andre Martinsen
• The escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran raises questions as to whether the flow of Iranian crude oil to China’s independent refiners can continue unabated: Platts
• China’s CNOOC has in recent months been sending shipments of Russian ESPO crude into a new reserve base according to Reuters.
• Kazakhstan is planning to ship 120,000 tons of crude oil to Germany this month, KazTransOil said, cited by Reuters.
• Kazakhstan’s crude oil output in March stood 131kbpd above its OPEC+ target, the Energy Ministry said
• Citigroup has raised its oil price forecast with the Q2 Brent average up from $74/bbl to $82/bbl and a 3-month WTI price target up from $75/bbl to $83/bbl.
• The flurry of drone and missile attacks by Iran on Israel, if escalated, could significantly influence trade flows via the Strain of Hormuz, according to Platts.