On-Shore USDCNY Close Monday July 31, 2017

By Vicki Schmelzer

     NEW YORK (MNI) - On-shore Chinese yuan CFETS close 

23:30 local    23:30 local

time close      time close      16:30 local time CFETS    16:30 local time CFETS

                             reference rate close July     reference rate close

July 31            July 28                          31                   July 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6.7266              6.7369                      6.7290                    6.7429

     USDCNY closed at CNY6.7266, after trading in a CNY6.7213 to CNY6.7365 range

(Bloomberg levels). 

     Dollar-yuan topped out on June 27 at CNY 6.8442, before falling off sharply

as big Chinese banks sold dollars to prop up the yuan, purportedly at the

prompting of the People's Bank of China (PBOC). 

     USDCNY has moved steadily lower subsequently, in line with a softer U.S.

dollar trend overall. The earlier USDCNY low around CNY 6.7213, was the lowest

since Oct. 14, 2016, when the pair bottomed at the same level. 

     In terms of larger highs and lows, USDCNY posted a high of CNY6.9648 Dec.

28, 2016, very close to the CNY6.9649 high seen Dec. 16, 2016, which was the

weakest yuan level since May 21, 2008, when USDCNY topped out at CNY6.9743. 

     The USDCNY low of CNY6.4528, seen March 31, 2016, was the lowest (highest

yuan level) since Dec. 11, 2015, when the pair bottomed at CNY6.4390. The March

31 close of CNY6.4536 was the lowest since Dec. 10, when the pair closed at

CNY6.4386. 

     Back on Jan. 12, 2016, the PBOC intervened heavily in order to narrow the

spread between the on-shore and off-shore yuan, which had widened to over +1,400

pips in the first week in January as speculators entered into CNH shorts on

expectations of a higher USDCNY. 

     The PBOC was forced to intervene as one of the conditions of the yuan's

entry into the IMF's SDR basket was to close the gap. 

     In subsequent months in 2016, the CNH-CNY spread narrowed markedly,

reflecting overall improved risk appetite. The spread widened in response to the

June 23rd Brexit vote, but later narrowed again. 

     Beginning in December 2016, the CNH-CNY spread turned negative on several

occasions and the spread subsequently traded at extremely wide negative levels. 

     Analysts attributed the negative spreads, seen at times earlier in 2017 and

again more recently, to tighter CNH funding conditions and positioning, not

improved risk sentiment. 

     Monday's CNH-CNY closing spread (at 11:30 p.m. local time) was +56 pips

versus -8 pips Friday and compared to the -607 pips seen May 31. The June 26

spread of +110 pips was the widest positive spread since Dec. 30, when the

spread stood at +215 pips. 

     The Feb. 3, 2017 spread was -719 pips, which was the widest negative spread

since the -891 pip spread seen Jan. 5. On Dec. 19, 2016, the spread was -276

pips, which was the most negative spread of 2016. 

     On Nov. 23 and Nov. 25, 2016, the CNH-CNY spread widened to +287 pips. This

was the widest positive spread since Brexit in late June 2016, when on June 27,

the closing CNH-CNY spread of +396 pips was the widest, i.e. most risk averse,

since Feb. 3, 2016 when the spread was also +396 pips. 

     On Jan. 2, 2017, the off-shore yuan fell to a new life-time low versus the

dollar around CNH6.9895. Since then, overall the CNH has strengthened in line

with the CNY.

     Dollar-yuan (offshore) was trading near CNH6.7292 Monday, on the low side

of a CNH6.7251 to CNH6.7414 range. 

     USDCNH posted a low near CNH6.7234 June 1, which was the lowest level seen

since Oct. 12, 2016, when the pair bottomed at CNH6.7176. 

     USDCNH posted a high near CNH6.9177 May 9, the highest level since March 9,

when the pair saw a high near CNH6.9319.

     Earlier, the People's Bank of China set the yuan central parity fixing

versus the U.S. dollar at CNY6.7283 versus CNY6.7373 Friday.

     Monday's parity rate was the highest yuan fixing level since Oct. 14, 2016,

when the parity rate was set at CNY6.7157.

     These settings compared to the CNY6.9526 fixing, seen Jan. 4, 2017, which

was the weakest yuan fixing level since May 21, 2008.  

--MNI New York Bureau; tel: +1 212-669-6438; email: vicki.schmelzer@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$A$$$,M$Q$$$,M$$FI$,M$$FX$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]