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OPEC Reduced 2022 and 2023 Oil Demand Growth Forecast

OIL

OPEC reduce the forecast for 2022 and 2023 global oil demand growth according to the Monthly Oil Market Report today. The reduction was due to geopolitical uncertainties and mounting economic challenges including high inflation and increases to interest rates.

  • Oil demand in 2022 to increase by 2.55mbpd, or 2.6%, down 100k bpd from the previous forecast. Oil demand in 3Q22 and 4Q22 is revised lower due to China, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, and weaker economic activities.
  • Oil demand in 2023 to increase by 2.2mbpd down 100k bpd from the previous forecast.
  • "Downside risks include high inflation, monetary tightening by major central banks, high sovereign debt levels in many regions, tightening labour markets and persisting supply chain constraints."
  • Non-OPEC Supply Growth is lower by 30kbpd to 1.9mbpd in 2022 and raised by 20kbpd in 2023 to 1.54mbpd. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Canada, Guyana and Brazil. Considerable uncertainties persist regarding the potential for US shale production and imports of Russian oil.
  • The report said that OPEC output fell by 210kbpd in October to 29.49mbpd, more than the target OPEC+ reduction.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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