OPEC Uncertainty

Crude futures are lower in Asia on Tuesday, if the close was negative it would be the third consecutive lower finish; WTI last down $0.65 at $59.99/bbl, brent is down $0.65 at $63.04.

• Markets are looking ahead to the OPEC+ this week, the group will meet on March 4. Markets expect an increase in production quotas given crude's move higher in 2021, but the groups biggest producer Saudi Arabia are said to be more cautious.
• The coalition has currently taken out 7.2m bpd of crude production, approximately 7% of pre-pandemic supply, and can increase supply by up to 500k bpd each month, as per the agreement struck in December, while there as still questions about Saudi Arabia continuing its voluntary production cuts. The latest report by Goldman Sachs posits that OPEC+ still has a deficit of 2m bpd at present. The pace of draws during the recovery could outstrip the group's ability to ramp up.
• The OPEC joint technical committee (JTC) will meet later on Tuesday, tasked with reviewing conformity to output cuts and market conditions. Meanwhile the weekly inventory reports from the API and the US DOE, are due to be released later March 2 and March 3, respectively.