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Opens Europe Firm, Focus on $1.1990.

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Much awaited US CPI Tuesday came in above forecast level, though market was geared for a strong show in March and therefore did little to knock risk appetite.
  • EUR/USD cleared through resistance in the $1.1920/27 area, as the USD came under general pressure, taking the rate to an initial high of $1.1943, advancing on to $1.1956 following a strong 10yr auction.
  • Asia took over the USD sell baton, took EUR/USD on to $1.1964(50-dma), and was holding firm into Europe.
  • Expect resistance between $1.1964/74(50-dma/55-dma, 50% $1.2243-1.1704) a break to expose the Mar18/11 highs at $1.1989/90 (with the top of the 1.0% 10-dma envelope close behind at $1.1991). Above here and $1.2000, then $1.2025/40 move into view.
  • Support $1.1947, $1.1925/20, $1.1905/1.1890, $1.1860.
  • Option expiries of note for today's NY cut include $1.1900(E1.1bln-EUR puts), $1.1925(E1.3bln-EUR puts), $1.1945-60(E1.46bln-EUR puts), $1.1975-80(E430mln-EUR puts)
  • EZ IP 0900GMT (median -1.2%mm, -1.4%yy). ECB speakers include Guindos (dove) 0700GMT, Panetta (dove) 1145GMT, Lagarde (dove) 1400GMT, Schnabel 1700GMT.
  • Fed Kaplan (non voter, hawk) 1315GMT), Fed Powell (dove) 1600GMT, Fed Beige Book 1800GMT, Fed Williams(dove) 1830GMT, Fed Clarida (dove) 1900GMT, Fed Bostic (hawk) 2000GMT.
  • MNI Techs: Extending recent recovery that started Mar 31. Yesterday's gains resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, strengthening a short-term bullish case and paving the way for a climb towards 1.1990, Mar 11 high and a key near-term resistance. A break would open 1.2037, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support is seen at 1.1861, Apr 7 and 8 low.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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