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OUTLOOK: Few Local Drivers But Plenty Elsewhere

CANADA
  • Little scheduled locally today aside from a 10Y GoC auction (1200ET) with impact more likely from a heavy US docket plus BoE/ECB.
  • Recapping official commentary from yesterday:
  • BoC’s Macklem: “QT could come in fairly short order after rate hike”. This tweaks guidance from last week’s decision that when it begins to raise the policy rate, it will consider stopping reinvestments and start runoff.
  • He added that the primary instrument for tightening will be rate hikes and that the path will hinge on productivity gains, whilst balance sheet rolloff works further out on the yield curve.
  • Separately, Routledge, head of the federal banking regulator, noted that house prices could fall 10-20% in some regions as rates increase. National prices were up 15.5% Y/Y in Dec, whilst Vancouver prices were up 18.5% Y/Y in Jan in data released yesterday.

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