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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Bear Cycle In Gilts Remains In Play

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded lower Monday, starting the week on a bearish note. Short-term weakness still appears to be corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Note that 133.41, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight scope for a deeper retracement potentially towards 132.54, 61.8% of the Jul 7 - Aug 5 rally. First resistance is 134.49, the Aug 29 high.
  • Gilt futures remain in a short-term bear cycle and the contract traded lower Monday. The move down last week resulted in a breach of 98.79, the Aug 12 low. The break highlights scope for a deeper retracement near-term that opens 98.00 next. The primary trend condition remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. A reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective phase. Initial firm resistance is 99.21, the Aug 27 high.
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