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PERU: JP Morgan Expects BCRP To Continue Rate Cuts Amid Well-Behaved Inflation

PERU
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  • Despite the inflation performance in August and strong activity in the second quarter, JP Morgan maintains their call for the BCRP to continue easing monetary conditions this week, with a 25 basis points cut in the policy rate to 5.25%.
  • The main reasons for this are that sequential inflation for both headline and core continue to run close to the target range floor, while the output gap remains in negative territory, albeit it is closing quickly. They note that core inflation logged almost null change in August (0.01% m/m), with the annual rate converging to 2.78% y/y. As a result, the 3-month sequential pace has declined to levels not observed since the COVID-19 period, which, in JPM’s view, provides room to continue lowering the ex-ante monetary policy rate.
  • In their central scenario, the policy rate converges to 4.5% by the end of this year, reaching a terminal level of 4.0% by 2Q25.
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  • Despite the inflation performance in August and strong activity in the second quarter, JP Morgan maintains their call for the BCRP to continue easing monetary conditions this week, with a 25 basis points cut in the policy rate to 5.25%.
  • The main reasons for this are that sequential inflation for both headline and core continue to run close to the target range floor, while the output gap remains in negative territory, albeit it is closing quickly. They note that core inflation logged almost null change in August (0.01% m/m), with the annual rate converging to 2.78% y/y. As a result, the 3-month sequential pace has declined to levels not observed since the COVID-19 period, which, in JPM’s view, provides room to continue lowering the ex-ante monetary policy rate.
  • In their central scenario, the policy rate converges to 4.5% by the end of this year, reaching a terminal level of 4.0% by 2Q25.