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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PHP
The Philippine peso has been in demand after the release of domestic CPI data, which revealed a surprise acceleration in headline inflation. Price growth quickened to +6.4% Y/Y in July, the fastest pace since October 2018, with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey suggesting it was expected to have stayed at 6.1%.
- The largest contributor to the rise in the aggregate price index was the "food and non-alcoholic beverages" sub-index, followed by transport.
- BSP Gov Medalla had earlier flagged that this month will see either a 25bp or 50bp rate hike. The expectation-beating inflation outcome may nudge the Monetary Board towards a bolder step.
- Following the release of CPI data today, the central bank noted that it is prepared to take all necessary policy action to bring inflation toward a target-consistent path over the medium term.
- Spot USD/PHP trades -0.255 at PHP55.360, with bears looking for a sell-off past Jul 29 low/50-DMA at PHP55.057/54.767. Conversely, a bounce above Jul 28 high of PHP55.975 would bring record highs at PHP56.500 into view.
- USD/PHP 1-month NDF last seen -0.130 at PHP55.460. Bears look for a slide through Jul 29 low/50-DMA at PHP55.170/54.908, while bulls keep an eye on Jul 28 high of PHP56.060, followed by record highs at PHP56.740.
- Notable data releases next week are all due Tuesday. On tap are unemployment, trade balance and GDP.
Fig. 1: Philippines CPI Y/Y (%) vs. Philippines CPI Food And Non-Alcoholic Beverages Y/Y (%)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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