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Philly Fed Bounces But Still Far From Strong

US DATA
  • Reasonable beat for the Philly Fed manufacturing survey in August as it increased from -12.3 to +6.2 (cons -5.2), helping offset the large miss from the Empire State survey.
  • The press release sets the tone though: “Although the general activity index turned positive, it was low, and the new orders index remained negative.”
  • Further, in the opposite development to Empire, 6-months ahead general activity saw a smaller improvement, from just -18.6 to -10.6 and only just poking above the brief prior low of -12.4 from Feb’08.
  • It hit concurrently with a small improvement in jobless claims, with initial dipping to 250k (cons. 264k) from a downward revised 252k in a payrolls reference week.
  • It sees Tsys pare gains but with yields still down -2.5-3.5bps across the curve.


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  • Reasonable beat for the Philly Fed manufacturing survey in August as it increased from -12.3 to +6.2 (cons -5.2), helping offset the large miss from the Empire State survey.
  • The press release sets the tone though: “Although the general activity index turned positive, it was low, and the new orders index remained negative.”
  • Further, in the opposite development to Empire, 6-months ahead general activity saw a smaller improvement, from just -18.6 to -10.6 and only just poking above the brief prior low of -12.4 from Feb’08.
  • It hit concurrently with a small improvement in jobless claims, with initial dipping to 250k (cons. 264k) from a downward revised 252k in a payrolls reference week.
  • It sees Tsys pare gains but with yields still down -2.5-3.5bps across the curve.