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Pill to speak on the economy at 12:35BST

BOE
  • The next big event for UK markets will be a "Speech on the economy" from BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill.
  • Note that Pill last spoke on 29 September and noted that "Taken in conjunction with the macroeconomic impact of ensuing market developments, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the fiscal easing announced last week will prompt a significant and necessary monetary policy response in November."
  • We noted at the time that "significant" was a step up from "forceful" and left the door open to him voting for a larger than 50bp hike in November. Most analysts still look for a 75bp hike in November, but the market continues to price in more than 100bp (and there are some notable economists looking for a 100bp hike too).
  • We will be watching closely to see if Pill continues to use this same language or whether he makes any further comments on the gilt purchase operations. We would expect him to reiterate Governor Bailey's comments from last night that purchases will end this week.
  • External MPC member Catherine Mann will appear in a webinar later today (18:00BST) entitled "’Global macro conjuncture and challenges facing small open economies’.
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