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T-Notes +0-01 at 139-04. Light richening into the cash close enforced at the start Monday's London hours (owing to a UK holiday) saw the curve twist flatten a touch vs. Friday's closing levels, perhaps aided by some focus on sizable month-end extension projections. This came after fresh all-time highs for S&P 500 e-minis generally kept the space capped during Asia-Pac hours.
- The curve steepened at the margins on Friday, with the space recovering from worst levels. Some were happy to point to the aforementioned huge month-end index extensions as a driving force behind the Tsy bid. Still, the bid in equities and uptick in traded inflation metrics kept the long end rally in check.
- Fed's Harker and Kaplan had slightly differing views on what AIT could mean (at least in terms of outright inflation levels), although markets will look to addresses from Vice Chair Clarida (later today) and Governor Brainard for a little more clarity on the matter over the coming days.
- On the Hill we have seen a marginal narrowing of the fiscal differences, with the Trump admin moving its proposal up to a total of $1.3tn worth of fresh support, although this was rejected by the Democrats, and remains some way short of their demands.
- Further afield, social unrest continues to rear its head, with an individual who was seemingly aligned with right wing groups shot in Portland, Oregon over the weekend.
- Elsewhere, as mentioned earlier, it is worth noting that China's latest restrictions on artificial-intelligence technology exports provides fresh hurdles and potentially the ultimate stumbling block for U.S. companies looking to acquire ByteDance's TikTok.
- Sino-Indian tensions are also back on the radar after an apparent consensus violation by the Chinese side.
- Clarida's aforementioned address headlines today.