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EMERGING MARKETS: PLN has best session in months as ECJ rules out worst case
-Both the PLN and domestic Polish bank equities held firm gains into the close
as the banking sector avoided the worst-case scenario from the ECJ ruling on CHF
mortgages. This scenario would have seen the mortgage converted at unfavourable
CHF/PLN rates and also retain interest payments linked to CHF money market rates
and not the more punitive PLN rates - leaving domestic banks out of pocket.
EUR/PLN fell well below the 50-dma on the news and looks to make a decent test
on the mid-September lows.
-Attention turns to Friday's RBI rate decision. The bank are seen trimming rates
by 25bps, although there's a fair amount of discrepancy around analyst
estimates. Slipping core inflation numbers give the bank ample justification to
trim policy, and the RBI are also likely to cut growth forecasts for 2020. The
depth of these downgrades could signal further policy accommodation beyond this
month and will be a focus for markets beyond the initial decision.
-Russian CPI data is also due Friday.