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PLN: Zloty Edges Higher, Market Weighs 2024 Budget Amendments

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EUR/PLN pulled back from cyclical highs yesterday and has extended that move this morning, last changing hands -37 pips at 4.3357. Bears look for losses towards Oct 14 low of 4.2867, while bulls keep an eye on Jun 14 high of 4.3826.

  • POLGBs are on a firmer footing despite yesterday's poor debt auction and announcement of higher-than-expected budget deficit target for this year. The amount sold at the auction was PLN5.5bn, close to the lower end of the planned range, while total demand was just PLN1.1bn above that level. The availability of proceeds from 5-year bonds maturing earlier this month did little to boost appetite for Polish debt. Separately, the cabinet approved a PLN56bn hike to the planned fiscal deficit for this year, which topped estimates of local media and sell-side desks. Finance Minister Domanski said that he was not anticipating any major boost to debt issuance in 4Q2024. Local analysts suggested that his guidance was credible given excess liquidity on the government's current account, but warned that this would weigh on pre-financing next year's borrowing needs.
  • Statistics Poland will release flash October CPI data tomorrow, with consensus looking for an uptick to +5.0% Y/Y from +4.9% recorded in September. The NBP's inflation target is +2.5% Y/Y +/- 1pp but most members of the rate-setting panel expect inflation to start easing towards the desired levels next year.
  • The WIG20 trades 0.6% lower on the session, giving up some of yesterday's gains.
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EUR/PLN pulled back from cyclical highs yesterday and has extended that move this morning, last changing hands -37 pips at 4.3357. Bears look for losses towards Oct 14 low of 4.2867, while bulls keep an eye on Jun 14 high of 4.3826.

  • POLGBs are on a firmer footing despite yesterday's poor debt auction and announcement of higher-than-expected budget deficit target for this year. The amount sold at the auction was PLN5.5bn, close to the lower end of the planned range, while total demand was just PLN1.1bn above that level. The availability of proceeds from 5-year bonds maturing earlier this month did little to boost appetite for Polish debt. Separately, the cabinet approved a PLN56bn hike to the planned fiscal deficit for this year, which topped estimates of local media and sell-side desks. Finance Minister Domanski said that he was not anticipating any major boost to debt issuance in 4Q2024. Local analysts suggested that his guidance was credible given excess liquidity on the government's current account, but warned that this would weigh on pre-financing next year's borrowing needs.
  • Statistics Poland will release flash October CPI data tomorrow, with consensus looking for an uptick to +5.0% Y/Y from +4.9% recorded in September. The NBP's inflation target is +2.5% Y/Y +/- 1pp but most members of the rate-setting panel expect inflation to start easing towards the desired levels next year.
  • The WIG20 trades 0.6% lower on the session, giving up some of yesterday's gains.