MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, November 18

MNI BRIEF: China’s October Youth Employment Rate Remains High

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Retail Sales Growth Decline Narrows In Oct

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY38.9 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1907 Mon; +0.11% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY172.6 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

Japan Sep Machine Orders -0.7% M/M

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU Synd; SK, BE Auction on Monday

MNI: US SEP BUSINESS INVENTORIES +0.1%; SALES +0.3%

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

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PLN: Zloty Loses Ground, CE3 Space Shows Weakness

PLN
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion

EUR/PLN snaps a four-day losing streak and changes hands +137 pips at 4.3317, with the zloty struggling alongside its CE3 peers relative to most other EMEA currencies. A clearance of Nov 6 high of 4.3758 would give bulls a green light for targeting 4.3826, which kept a lid on gains on Jun 14. On the flip side, bears keep an eye on 4.2867, the low print of Oct 14.

  • NBP's Gabriela Maslowska offered a relatively cautious perspective in her latest interview for PAP news agency. The policymaker said that rate cuts will likely start only in 2H2025 rather than in 2Q2025 and expressed her support for gradual easing, starting with a standard-sized 25bp move.
  • The central bank will release official core CPI readings for October this afternoon. These prints tend to be close to the estimates as analysts base their forecasts on final CPI data published a few days earlier. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey is +4.2% Y/Y versus +4.3% recorded in September.
  • The WIG20 Index has added 0.6% but refreshed cyclical lows during today's oscillations and remains comfortably in the red on an YtD basis.
  • POLGB yields have ticked higher, last sit 2.7-4.5bp above neutral levels, with the 5-8 segment underperforming.
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EUR/PLN snaps a four-day losing streak and changes hands +137 pips at 4.3317, with the zloty struggling alongside its CE3 peers relative to most other EMEA currencies. A clearance of Nov 6 high of 4.3758 would give bulls a green light for targeting 4.3826, which kept a lid on gains on Jun 14. On the flip side, bears keep an eye on 4.2867, the low print of Oct 14.

  • NBP's Gabriela Maslowska offered a relatively cautious perspective in her latest interview for PAP news agency. The policymaker said that rate cuts will likely start only in 2H2025 rather than in 2Q2025 and expressed her support for gradual easing, starting with a standard-sized 25bp move.
  • The central bank will release official core CPI readings for October this afternoon. These prints tend to be close to the estimates as analysts base their forecasts on final CPI data published a few days earlier. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey is +4.2% Y/Y versus +4.3% recorded in September.
  • The WIG20 Index has added 0.6% but refreshed cyclical lows during today's oscillations and remains comfortably in the red on an YtD basis.
  • POLGB yields have ticked higher, last sit 2.7-4.5bp above neutral levels, with the 5-8 segment underperforming.