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DENMARK

Latest opinion polling from Denmark shows the centre-left Socials Democrats of Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen retaining a sizeable lead over all other parties on 31% of the vote. The continued fragmentation on the right of Danish politics will only serve to boost the prospect of the governing centre-left minority gov't remaining in power, or even calling a snap general election after the pandemic to take advantage of the strong support for the party.

  • Voxmeter poll: Social Democrats: 31% (-1), Conservatives: 14% (+1), Venstre: 11% (-1), Red-Green Alliance: 9%, Socialist People's Party: 8%, New Right: 8% (+1), Danish People's Party: 6%, Social Liberals: 6%, Liberal Alliance: 3%, Christian Democrats: 2%, Alternative: 1%. +/- vs 10-16 May 2021. Fieldwork: 17-23 May 2021. Sample size: 1,011
  • On the moderate centre-right, the agrarian Liberals (Venstre), historically one of Denmark's dominant political parties, continue to fall further behind the Conservative People's Party. An impeachment scandal involving Venstre's former deputy leader sparked a sustained decline in support from which the party has failed to recover, with support leaking away to the long-standing but relatively minor liberal conservative Conservative People's Party.
  • On the nationalist right, the Danish People's Party (DPP), having supported the Venstre gov't from 2015 to 2019 has failed to recover the support it lost during that time. Moreover, the New Right has stolen a march on the party, complaining the DPP is too lenient on immigration and too left-wing on economic issues. This split has seen support for both parties fail to exceed 10%, when in 2019 the DPP would routinely poll around 20%.
Chart 1. Danish Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Epinion, Voxmeter, Gallup, Megafon, Electica, YouGov, MNI. Each dot indicates individual poll.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-0981 | tom.lake@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-0981 | tom.lake@marketnews.com