POWER
Poland’s March ended its five-session downward trend to rebound slightly as European coal prices increased, offsetting losses in the EU ETS market and as average temperatures are forecast to be on a general upward trend until 4 March – reaching as high as 10.7C. Closer in, Polish wind will be high over next week – likely weighing down spot costs.
- Poland’s March baseload power settled at PLN436.90/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN429.61/MWh on 17 February, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- The contract rebounded from its lowest settlement since 29 January in the previous session to settle just above its price on 30 January.
- EUA DEC 25 down 2.6% at 75.2 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 up 2% at 98.25 USD/MT
- The March contract traded 31 times in 37 lots from 46 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- The contract opened at PLN427/MWh – the low for the day – before steadily rising to a daily high of PLN440/MWh and ending the session at PLN437/MWh at the end of the session.
- Average temperatures in Warsaw were revised up on the day over 21-23 February by as much as 1.3C. Average temperatures are forecast to be on a general upward over the remainder of this month and into early March, with temps climbing to as high as 10.7C on 4 March.
- Closer in, the day-ahead edged up to PLN594.12/MWh for Wednesday delivery from PLN588.74/MWh for Tuesday as wind is expected at 0.815GW tomorrow from 1.79GW today.
- However, average temperatures in Warsaw are anticipated to rise to -2.7C on 19 February from -5.4C on 18 February.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 12% load factor, or 1.15GW on 20 February – which could drop prices from the previous session.
Wind next week, or over 24-27 February will be between 51-58% load factors – Likely dropping costs on the week and keeping gains subdued
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