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POWER: Poland's March Rebounds to Fresh High

POWER
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Poland’s March rebounded to reach a fresh high to resist price falls in European coal, with upward movements in EU ETS and downward revisions of average temperatures in Warsaw supporting –  temps forecast to drop to as low as -9.9C on 19 Feb. Works at 630MW Plock gas-fired power plant will start over 7-11 February, which could support spot prices over the period, coupled with cooler temperatures.

  • Poland’s March baseload power settled at PLN450.75/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN445.20/MWh on 4 February, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
  • The contract reached a fresh all-time high, surpassing its previous high on 31 January at PLN445.99/MWh.
  • EUA DEC 25 up 1.3% at 81.93 EUR/MT
  • Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 0.3% at 104.75 USD/MT at 14:00 GMT
  • The latest bi-weekly Polish Primary Market Auction (Phase 4 - CAP3) cleared at higher at €77.87/ton CO2e, compared with €76.71/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 22 January according to EEX.
  • This has likely pushed up costs for fossil-fired generators.
  • The March contract traded 15 times in 16 lots from 11 lots exchanged in the previous session.
  • The contract opened at PLN448.10/MWh and fell slightly to PLN448/MWh– the daily low – before steadily rising to a daily high of PLN452/MWh and dropping to PLN451/MWh at the end of the session.
  • Average temperatures in Warsaw are seen on a general downward trend throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts to flip below the seasonal average on 9 February. Temperature will drop to as low at -7.5C and -9.9C over 18-19 February.
  • Closer in, the day-ahead rebounded to PLN653.66/MWh for Thursday delivery from PLN587.89/MWh for Wednesday as wind is expected to drop to 11% load factor tomorrow from 15% today.
  • Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 32% load factor on 7 February (Fri) – likely dropping prices from the previous session.

  • However, works at 630MW Plock gas-fired power plant will start over 7-11 February and the 454MW curtailment at the 910MW Jaworzno 2 coal plant has been extended again to 8 February from 7 February.





     

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Poland’s March rebounded to reach a fresh high to resist price falls in European coal, with upward movements in EU ETS and downward revisions of average temperatures in Warsaw supporting –  temps forecast to drop to as low as -9.9C on 19 Feb. Works at 630MW Plock gas-fired power plant will start over 7-11 February, which could support spot prices over the period, coupled with cooler temperatures.

  • Poland’s March baseload power settled at PLN450.75/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN445.20/MWh on 4 February, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
  • The contract reached a fresh all-time high, surpassing its previous high on 31 January at PLN445.99/MWh.
  • EUA DEC 25 up 1.3% at 81.93 EUR/MT
  • Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 0.3% at 104.75 USD/MT at 14:00 GMT
  • The latest bi-weekly Polish Primary Market Auction (Phase 4 - CAP3) cleared at higher at €77.87/ton CO2e, compared with €76.71/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 22 January according to EEX.
  • This has likely pushed up costs for fossil-fired generators.
  • The March contract traded 15 times in 16 lots from 11 lots exchanged in the previous session.
  • The contract opened at PLN448.10/MWh and fell slightly to PLN448/MWh– the daily low – before steadily rising to a daily high of PLN452/MWh and dropping to PLN451/MWh at the end of the session.
  • Average temperatures in Warsaw are seen on a general downward trend throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts to flip below the seasonal average on 9 February. Temperature will drop to as low at -7.5C and -9.9C over 18-19 February.
  • Closer in, the day-ahead rebounded to PLN653.66/MWh for Thursday delivery from PLN587.89/MWh for Wednesday as wind is expected to drop to 11% load factor tomorrow from 15% today.
  • Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 32% load factor on 7 February (Fri) – likely dropping prices from the previous session.

  • However, works at 630MW Plock gas-fired power plant will start over 7-11 February and the 454MW curtailment at the 910MW Jaworzno 2 coal plant has been extended again to 8 February from 7 February.





     

    image