POWER
Poland’s March remained firm from the previous week, albeit dropping just slightly, amid losses in EU ETS and European coal, while a downward revision of average temperatures in Warsaw kept losses in power subdued. Looking slightly ahead, Polish day ahead prices are likely to remain elevated over 5-6 February as wind is expected at 8-11% load factors
- Poland’s March baseload power settled at PLN445.83/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN445.99/MWh on 31 January, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- The contract dropped from its high in the previous session.
- EUA DEC 25 down 3.9% at 80.66 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 0.7% at 109.5 USD/MT at 14:32 GMT.
- The March contract traded 17 times in 19 lots from 18 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- The contract opened at PLN446/MWh before quickly rising to a daily high of PLN448/MWh and reaching a daily low of PLN445/MWh before ending the session at PLN446.50/MWh.
- Average temperatures in Warsaw have been revised down from the previous day over 6-8 February by up to around 0.2C, with temps anticipated to flip below the norm on 8 February and remain below until 15 February.
- Closer in, the day-ahead dropped slightly on the day to PLN611.74/MWh for Tuesday delivery from PLN648.57/MWh for Monday as average temperatures are anticipated to climb to 1.8C tomorrow from -0.3C today.
- This offset a drop in wind generation in the country, which is expected at a 8% load factor on Tuesday from a 14% load factor on Monday.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be between 8-11% load factors over 5-6 February (Wed-Thur) – likely keeping prices elevated.
- And lower supply from fossil-fuel power plants is expected as the unplanned outage at Poland’s 910MW Jaworzno 2 coal plant is now a 454MW curtailment that is anticipated to last until 5 February, latest Remit data show.
The unit was meant to fully return on 3 February.
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