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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NORGES BANK
The Norges Bank policy path projection sees a slightly higher peak but a lower level in the medium-term. The peak rate now seen at 4.55% (+11bps from September).
- Looking at the rest of the forecasts, CPI-ATE is revised up slightly through 2024 and 2025 (the largest upward revision seen in Q3 2024 to 4.65% (+22bps vs Sep projections).
- The unemployment rate forecast is lower through the policy horizon given the resilience of the labour market seen through 2023 (the peak rate is now 2.34% in Q4 2025 vs 2.45% in September)
- The I-44 index forecast is shifted up notably, owing to the continued depreciation of the NOK since the September meeting. The index is seen above 120 through the forecast horizon/
- The committee notes that "the full effects of the past rate hikes have yet to be seen" in the statement, thus the GDP growth forecasts are lowered for 2023 and 2024 (to 0.07% in 2024 vs 0.25% prior). However, they are raised for 2025 and 2026 (to 1.15% in 2025 vs 0.80% prior).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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