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Polish Rates Likely to Be Raised By 50bps in February (Kotecki)

POLAND
  • NBP MPC candidate Kotecki said in an interview that the central is likely to raise rates by 50bps in February and continue its tightening cycle in the coming months.
  • Last week, Governor Glapinski mentioned during the press conference that the NBP can safely rise interest rates up to 4% if growth remains strong, with the central bank maintaining the current pace with 50bps monthly hikes.
  • Policymakers at the NBP seem to have understood that the uncertainty over the central bank's policy outlook had weighed on the PLN in the end of 2021, which keeps supporting inflation expectations.
  • By addressing a 'clearer communication' on its policy outlook, the NBP could benefit from a strengthening PLN (relative to Euro) due to the monetary policy divergence (with ECB), which could help anchor inflation expectations.
  • Poland plans to prepare a law that would provide guarantees for financing of working capital for gas distributors to help them operate on the market during the period of rising gas prices (BBG).
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