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POLITICAL RISK: US Election Polls Tighten, Vote Even Closer

POLITICAL RISK
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Markets will be focussed this week on Tuesday’s US election with results coming out on Wednesday Australian time. The race has been close with seven swings states likely to determine who wins the White House. Over the weekend, the national average polls tightened and those states remain on a knife edge. The narrowing of the surveys has resulted in the pullback of the Trump trade at the start of today with AUDUSD jumping 0.7% to 0.6606. 

  • The Economist’s probability of who will win the Presidency has narrowed to 51% for the Republican’s Trump and 49% for the Democrat’s Harris. Last Monday this was 55% to 45%. The Economist estimates that would give Trump 270 electoral votes, exactly what is needed, and Harris 268. Extremely close.
  • In terms of swing states, The Economist has Harris a point ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, worth 15 and 10 votes respectively. Trump is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania and Nevada, worth 19 and 6 votes, but they are essentially neck-and-neck. Trump is a point ahead in Georgia (16 votes) and North Carolina (16) and 2 points in Arizona (11).
  • Wikipedia’s national poll average has Harris 0.8pp ahead. In terms of the states, the last 3 polls have Arizona leaning Republican but all the others are counted as “tossup”, thus enforcing that the election remains very tight.
  • The NY Times/Siena College poll also has all seven swings states tight with Harris marginally ahead in North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin and Trump in Arizona, while Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania (Harris was ahead) are too close to call. The survey also reported Harris was ahead by 8pp with the 40% of those who had already voted.
  • The latest Des Moines Register poll is showing Harris on 47% ahead of Trump on 44% in Republican held Iowa, according to Reuters, but it is within the error band and other polls indicate that it is “likely” to stay Republican. 
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Markets will be focussed this week on Tuesday’s US election with results coming out on Wednesday Australian time. The race has been close with seven swings states likely to determine who wins the White House. Over the weekend, the national average polls tightened and those states remain on a knife edge. The narrowing of the surveys has resulted in the pullback of the Trump trade at the start of today with AUDUSD jumping 0.7% to 0.6606. 

  • The Economist’s probability of who will win the Presidency has narrowed to 51% for the Republican’s Trump and 49% for the Democrat’s Harris. Last Monday this was 55% to 45%. The Economist estimates that would give Trump 270 electoral votes, exactly what is needed, and Harris 268. Extremely close.
  • In terms of swing states, The Economist has Harris a point ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, worth 15 and 10 votes respectively. Trump is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania and Nevada, worth 19 and 6 votes, but they are essentially neck-and-neck. Trump is a point ahead in Georgia (16 votes) and North Carolina (16) and 2 points in Arizona (11).
  • Wikipedia’s national poll average has Harris 0.8pp ahead. In terms of the states, the last 3 polls have Arizona leaning Republican but all the others are counted as “tossup”, thus enforcing that the election remains very tight.
  • The NY Times/Siena College poll also has all seven swings states tight with Harris marginally ahead in North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin and Trump in Arizona, while Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania (Harris was ahead) are too close to call. The survey also reported Harris was ahead by 8pp with the 40% of those who had already voted.
  • The latest Des Moines Register poll is showing Harris on 47% ahead of Trump on 44% in Republican held Iowa, according to Reuters, but it is within the error band and other polls indicate that it is “likely” to stay Republican.