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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
Latest polls from Ipsos and Kantar show the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintaining its recent upward trajectory, with the party leading the Greens by 2%. The other major finding from the Ipsos poll is that the right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) have drawn level with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) for the first time since February 2020.
- Ipsos Poll: CDU: 25%, Greens: 23%, AfD: 13%, SPD: 13%, Free Democrats (FDP): 11%, Die Linke: 9%, Others: 6%. Fieldwork: 18-25 May; 2,014 respondents.
- Kantar Poll: CDU: 25% (-1), Greens: 23% (-1), SPD: 15% (+1), AfD: 12% (+1), FDP: 12% (+1), Die Linke: 7% (-1), Others: 6% (=). Fieldwork: 19-25 May; 1,422 respondents, chgs w/11-18 May.
- The leads for the CDU at the national level in recent weeks have not come due to a surge in support for the party, but more due to a dip in support for the environmentalist Greens. The Greens experienced a boost in support following the selection of Annalena Baerbock as the party's chancellor candidate in April.
- It would appear that some of the Greens support has shifted towards the pro-business, socially liberal Free Democrats, who are now polling around multi-year highs.
- Based on recent polling there are three potential coalition options that would secure a majority (see chart below): a CDU/CSU-Green coalition, a 'Germany Coalition' of the CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP, or a 'traffic light coalition' of the Greens, SPD and FDP. The incumbent 'grand coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD would not command a majority in the Bundestag.
Source: dawum.de, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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