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Modi, AMLO Top Major Economy Leader Poll, Macron Last


Under Pressure


Trend Condition Remains Bearish

EURO-DOLLAR: Positive outlook for US-China trade talks Friday boosted US assets
which saw EUR/USD pressed back from a high of $1.1410 to a low of $1.1353 around
the 1600GMT fix. Rate recovered to $1.1372 before it closed at $1.1363. Regional
holiday in NZ Wellington led to thinner conditions than usual at the start of
Asian trade. Rate was shoved to a marked high of $1.1409 before it dropped to
$1.1360/70 into the Tokyo open. Newswire suggestion that US-China trade talks
have stalled, due to IP theft issues, tempered risk outlook until release of
China GDP (as expected at 6.6%) with China DEC IP and Retail Sales seen firmer
than forecast. This release allowed EUR/USD to edge up to $1.1380 where it met
resistance, though pullbacks were buoyed above $1.1370. Early Europe has seen
another challenge on the $1.1380 level(touched $1.1381) but resistance remains
in place. A break and clear of $1.1380 leaves $1.1400 exposed, the level holding
the strike of an expiring option for today's NY cut, E1.24bn. Next resistance
$1.1410. Support $1.1360/50. MLK holiday in the US Monday expected to impact
liquidity. Focus this week on Davos Tue-Fri, Germany ZEW Tue, ECB meeting Jan24
along with EZ flash PMI's. Germany Ifo Jan25.