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Post-CPI Commentary From Fed and Other Officials

US
  • Daly (’24 voter): Time is now to step down on rate hike pace but pausing is not a subject of discussion. Jobs growth stronger than we need it to be and US inflation data ‘good news’ but ‘far from a victory’. Need to see positive traction on getting to 2% inflation, not prepared to make mistake of higher inflation expectations.
  • Logan (’23): Oct CPI data a welcome relief but a long way to go, may soon be appropriate to slow rate increase pace. Process of cooling off economy is just getting started, must focus on promptly restoring price stability.
  • Harker (’23): Favours a possible pause in rate hikes when the Funds rate hits around 4.5%, noting that policy lags may not be as long as previously thought and that he’s hearing more signs of a slowing economy from local contacts [pre-prepared remarks].

  • Atlanta Fed economist Meyer: An unexpectedly softer U.S. CPI report for October paints a rosier picture of moderating inflation than is likely the case. Roughly 60% of the CPI basket is still rising at rates above 5%, and alternative measures of underlying inflation remain "very elevated, reflecting broad-based price pressure," he said. “This is a better report than we’ve seen over the past several months, but only slightly. The topline numbers are overstating the improvement in underlying inflation”.
  • Yellen: Cautions against overreacting to report; housing/rent component to fuel inflation well into 2023.
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  • Daly (’24 voter): Time is now to step down on rate hike pace but pausing is not a subject of discussion. Jobs growth stronger than we need it to be and US inflation data ‘good news’ but ‘far from a victory’. Need to see positive traction on getting to 2% inflation, not prepared to make mistake of higher inflation expectations.
  • Logan (’23): Oct CPI data a welcome relief but a long way to go, may soon be appropriate to slow rate increase pace. Process of cooling off economy is just getting started, must focus on promptly restoring price stability.
  • Harker (’23): Favours a possible pause in rate hikes when the Funds rate hits around 4.5%, noting that policy lags may not be as long as previously thought and that he’s hearing more signs of a slowing economy from local contacts [pre-prepared remarks].

  • Atlanta Fed economist Meyer: An unexpectedly softer U.S. CPI report for October paints a rosier picture of moderating inflation than is likely the case. Roughly 60% of the CPI basket is still rising at rates above 5%, and alternative measures of underlying inflation remain "very elevated, reflecting broad-based price pressure," he said. “This is a better report than we’ve seen over the past several months, but only slightly. The topline numbers are overstating the improvement in underlying inflation”.
  • Yellen: Cautions against overreacting to report; housing/rent component to fuel inflation well into 2023.