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Post-Data Update, Rebounding

US TSY FUTURES
  • Focus on another upside weekly jobless claims print (+262k vs. +245k est after last week's +261k) and off stronger than expected retail sales print (+0.3% vs. -0.2% exp) as core comes out in-line.
  • Front month 10Y futures extend recent session highs, tap 113-07 (+11), yield marks 3.7494% low. Curves remain deeply inverted, however, 2s10s -2.5412 at -93.114 - not for off March multi-decade lows.
  • It appears, however, some accounts are looking past the Fed's hawkish hold yesterday and betting on a soft landing. At the moment, STIR futures are pricing in appr 64% chance of a 25bp hike in July, 80% chance of 25bp hike in September OR November.

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