### POV: A BOTTOM IN AUD/USD? UNLIKELY.......>

AUSSIE: ### POV: A BOTTOM IN AUD/USD? UNLIKELY

-Today, AUD/USD touched $0.7412, the lowest print since June 2017, but has

recovered to top $0.7450 well ahead of the NY close. Nonetheless, it's unlikely

to signal a near-term bottom as both technicals and fundamentals suggest AUD is

not out of the woods.

-While call options due to expire over the next month are heavily weighted

higher (close to 90% have strikes well in excess of today's spot price), the

risk reversals curve has not materially changed and, if anything, has shifted

more bearishly towards AUD in the short-term tenors over the past month.

-While the broader commodities complex has rallied on the increased risk of a

collapse of the Iranian nuclear deal, key exports iron ore and copper are yet to

(and will likely not) feel the benefit, signalling no commodity driven recovery

in AUD.

-Technical trading strategies remain almost unanimous in their bearish AUD

position, with every top 10 strategy (no. 1 being the Triangular MA strategy)

continuing to suggest their current winning short AUD/USD trade.