/###POV: COUNTING DOWN THE MINUTES: Consensus...>

FED: /###POV: COUNTING DOWN THE MINUTES: Consensus from most sell-side notes is

that the Jan FOMC minutes will show broad agreement on a pause in hikes in 2019

and reveal balance sheet thinking, with hawkish surprises unlikely.

- That`s probably a fair assessment, and the minutes may well be a non-event,

though there are at least two ways they may stir up volatility.

- First is the potential lack of clarity or unanimity on the balance sheet.

- While few are expecting specific details to have been discussed in Jan, much

talk in recent weeks has been about balance sheet plans, w some at

Fed(Mester/Brainard) saying runoff could end in 2019. 

- But Mester said Tuesday the Fed hadn't yet made B/S plans, and the minutes may

not be significantly more specific than Jan's statement re normalisation.

- Second is the rate hike outlook and how the minutes will explain the sudden

dovish move in Jan, especially given little new data at the time.

- Fed comms since Jan have been dovish but has centred around data dependency.

Will the minutes show enough consensus around Jan`s dovish language shift - let

alone give any nod to downside rate risks, as markets are pricing in?