#### POV: RBA POISED FOR FURTHER EASING,........>

RBA: #### POV: RBA POISED FOR FURTHER EASING, WHEN, NOT IF

- The RBA will likely cut its cash rate by 25bp on Tuesday, with a continued

uptick in underemployment & underutilisation building on the theme of excess

capacity in the labour mkt. Mkt pricing eased from extremes after RBA Gov. Lowe

failed to firmly commit to an Oct. cut earlier this week, but he highlighted

several areas of worry, as well as disappointment that Q2 GDP fell shy of the

Bank's exp., leaving easing firmly on the table. ABS job vacancies fell again in

Aug (Q/Q). While the outright level of vacancies remains high, the trajectory

draws attention, accompanied by the fact that the public sector is doing much of

the heavy lifting in the labour mkt as participation & unemployment tick higher.

- Also, the minutes of the Sep meeting lowered the bar re: further easing.

- Base Case: A 25bp cut. There may be no outright mention of further easing in

the statement, but Lowe is due to speak on Tuesday evening, it could come then.

- Dovish case: A cut, firm commitment to further easing, with a mention of

extraordinary measures in Lowe's address (unlikely).

- Hawkish surprise: No Cut, likely still provide a reference to incoming easing.