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### POV, WHAT TO EXPECT FOR.........>

US DATA PREVIEW
US DATA PREVIEW: ### POV, WHAT TO EXPECT FOR FRIDAY'S FEBRUARY NFP/AHE DATA
- The main focus on Friday's headline employment data is firmly on average
hourly earnings (0.2% est) rather than the Feb payroll figure (+220k est). NFP
can have a wide "miss" range, +/-25k and rates won't react much -- if at all.
AHE however, if it comes out strong again 0.3 or higher (w/no down revisions for
Jan) rates will react negatively (futures down/Tsy ylds higher), likely
surpassing last months lows; scalable, if AHE climbs 0.4% we will certainly
surpass Jan lows, but probability of that outcome is limited. 
- Market react to weaker AHE, say 0.2-0.1%, will see rates rally moderately --
not far as markets have been gradually pricing in slightly weaker read Friday. A
significant drop to say 0.0% coupled with a down revision to Jan, 10Y yld could
fall back below 2.8%. Meanwhile, rate hike % across the curve will decline.
March 20-21 rate hike probability is still near a lock at 97% now, will ease
slightly (spurring this week's bullish option flow: put unwinds, upside call
buying), but June and Sep rate hike probability will fall rapidly. 

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