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Powell, FOMC Display Only Half-Hearted Tightening Bias (1/2)

FED

Based on Powell's comments at today's press conference and the change in statement language, the FOMC likely has a tightening bias going forward, but it seems a little half-hearted.

  • While not directly addressing a question (from MNI) on whether the FOMC had a tightening bias, Powell said "we are prepared to do more if further monetary policy restraint is warranted".
  • But otherwise, he was quite dovish, spending far more time expressing different ways to say that the Fed sees policy having already reached a terminal level.
  • While the statement dropped the language about getting policy to "sufficiently restrictive", Powell wouldn't be fully drawn on whether he saw policy having reached that level ("That's an ongoing assessment. It is not possible to say that with confidence now.").
  • But he said that in the March Dot Plot, the median was for where rates arrived today at 5.00-5.25%, and they'll revisit in June. Bank credit tightening means "in principle we won't have to raise rates quite as high as we would have if this had not happened."

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