February 11, 2025 10:30 GMT
FOREX: Powell in Focus, Republican Scrutiny Likely
FOREX
- A brief phase of JPY buying has dissipated into the US open, with USD/JPY back above, and anchored to, the Y152.00 level. The general stability of the pair so far today is a decent signal that markets are well-priced for fractious trade tensions ahead, particularly as the EU outlined in detail that they'd respond in unison against the trade levies waged on steel and aluminium exported to the US.
- EUR is faring well alongside local equity markets, helping EUR/GBP progress back to 0.8350, but the consolidative move is yet to make any headway on last week's highs. This leaves EUR/AUD just above the pullback low, after the cross tested but failed break the 200-dma overnight at 1.6388. Regardless, the cross has printed six consecutive sessions of lower lows and a positive close today would be the first in seven sessions.
- Powell's appearance in front of the Senate Banking Committee later today, while bipartisan in nature, will be a focus for any Republican scrutiny on the Fed chair, with markets and lawmakers looking to gauge the Fed's potential responses to tariffs, tax actions and the impacts of immigration on US labour market gains.
- Powell's appearance is set for 1500GMT/1000ET, at which a release of text is expected. For monetary policy specifically, markets will be sensitive around wording for future rate adjustments, particularly if Powell drops a reference to "cautious" on policy ahead.
- Powell isn't the only central banker set to speak today, with BoE's Bailey, Fed's Hammack, Williams & Bowman and ECB's Schnabel all set to speak.
252 words