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POWER: German Delivery Costs May Fluctuate in First Half Nov Amid Temps, Wind

POWER
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German delivery costs could be volatile in the first half of November as temperatures remain around the 30-year norm, with lows of 7.3°C somewhat limiting heating demand. However, low wind output is expected to boost fossil-fuel generation and imports, with higher power plant availability over the period potentially keeping tightness in the system somewhat subdued.

  • Average temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to drop slightly below the norm from 3 Nov at around 7.1C – about 2C lower than the seasonal average – but temps will begin to recover shortly afterwards climbing to as high as 10C over 6-7 Nov compared to the norm of around 8.5C.
  • Min temps are seen to drop only between 3.6-9C over 3-10 Nov – with temps over 2-3 Nov just slightly revised down from previous forecasts.
  • Wind generation over 4-10 Nov is expected to be between 1.67-7.28GW compared to the max range of 6.79-18.03GW over the same period and more near the min range between 0.447-2.64GW, ECMWF shows.
  • Additionally, wind output in Germany is forecast to average 19.4GW across November, down by 16.6% on the year – with 2023 seeing an especially windy November, according to BNEF.
  • This could raise the call for lignite, coal and gas-fired units, with lignite output estimated to climb to about 16.14GW on 6 Nov from about 12.1GW on 1 Nov.
  • However, further out temperatures are expected to begin recovering to flip back above the norm towards the middle of November and remain elevated until at least mid-December.
  • And wind output in Germany usually picks up in December, which could weigh on delivery costs – coupled with above-normal temperatures potentially dropping prices lower than expected.
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German delivery costs could be volatile in the first half of November as temperatures remain around the 30-year norm, with lows of 7.3°C somewhat limiting heating demand. However, low wind output is expected to boost fossil-fuel generation and imports, with higher power plant availability over the period potentially keeping tightness in the system somewhat subdued.

  • Average temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to drop slightly below the norm from 3 Nov at around 7.1C – about 2C lower than the seasonal average – but temps will begin to recover shortly afterwards climbing to as high as 10C over 6-7 Nov compared to the norm of around 8.5C.
  • Min temps are seen to drop only between 3.6-9C over 3-10 Nov – with temps over 2-3 Nov just slightly revised down from previous forecasts.
  • Wind generation over 4-10 Nov is expected to be between 1.67-7.28GW compared to the max range of 6.79-18.03GW over the same period and more near the min range between 0.447-2.64GW, ECMWF shows.
  • Additionally, wind output in Germany is forecast to average 19.4GW across November, down by 16.6% on the year – with 2023 seeing an especially windy November, according to BNEF.
  • This could raise the call for lignite, coal and gas-fired units, with lignite output estimated to climb to about 16.14GW on 6 Nov from about 12.1GW on 1 Nov.
  • However, further out temperatures are expected to begin recovering to flip back above the norm towards the middle of November and remain elevated until at least mid-December.
  • And wind output in Germany usually picks up in December, which could weigh on delivery costs – coupled with above-normal temperatures potentially dropping prices lower than expected.