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POWER: German Fossil-Fuel Output Up On Month, Spot Prices May Be Lifted in Dec

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German gas-fired generation rose by 4GW on the month in November due to higher power demand from cooler temperatures and improved clean spark spreads, while lignite and coal output increased by 1-1.4GW, respectively. Spot prices may be supported in December, with temperatures in Dusseldorf below average and wind speeds in Germany below the 30-year norm.

  • German gas-fired output has averaged around 8.91GW so far in November, up from 4.83GW averaged across October, with lignite output at 10.56GW compared to 9.57GW in the previous month.
  • Generation from coal has averaged around 5.11GW over 1-27 November, up from 3.69GW last month.
  • German front-month clean spark spreads ended the month of October at €-3.52/MWh compared to September when they ended at €-13.32/MWh, according to MNI calculations.
  • In comparison, German front-month dark spark spreads ended at €-16.36/MWh in October from €-31.14/MWh at the end of September.
  • The drive in fossil fuel output was also due to a sharp increase in demand over the month, which averaged 56.21GW in November from 52.76GW in the previous month.
  • Offshore wind only slightly increased, edging up by around 38MW to 3.05GW, while onshore output climbed sharply to 14.27GW from 11.19GW in October.
  • Solar output fell to 2.11GW in November from 4.87GW in October.
  • Looking ahead, average temperatures in Dusseldorf are expected to be below the seasonal average over 9-18 Dec and will be slightly above on 19 Dec, 21-23 Dec but will remain below for the remainder of the season.
  • And wind speeds in Germany will be mostly below the 30-year norm of around 4.5 m/s over the same period, with winds only above on 7-8 Dec and 14-16 Dec, ECMWF shows.





     
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German gas-fired generation rose by 4GW on the month in November due to higher power demand from cooler temperatures and improved clean spark spreads, while lignite and coal output increased by 1-1.4GW, respectively. Spot prices may be supported in December, with temperatures in Dusseldorf below average and wind speeds in Germany below the 30-year norm.

  • German gas-fired output has averaged around 8.91GW so far in November, up from 4.83GW averaged across October, with lignite output at 10.56GW compared to 9.57GW in the previous month.
  • Generation from coal has averaged around 5.11GW over 1-27 November, up from 3.69GW last month.
  • German front-month clean spark spreads ended the month of October at €-3.52/MWh compared to September when they ended at €-13.32/MWh, according to MNI calculations.
  • In comparison, German front-month dark spark spreads ended at €-16.36/MWh in October from €-31.14/MWh at the end of September.
  • The drive in fossil fuel output was also due to a sharp increase in demand over the month, which averaged 56.21GW in November from 52.76GW in the previous month.
  • Offshore wind only slightly increased, edging up by around 38MW to 3.05GW, while onshore output climbed sharply to 14.27GW from 11.19GW in October.
  • Solar output fell to 2.11GW in November from 4.87GW in October.
  • Looking ahead, average temperatures in Dusseldorf are expected to be below the seasonal average over 9-18 Dec and will be slightly above on 19 Dec, 21-23 Dec but will remain below for the remainder of the season.
  • And wind speeds in Germany will be mostly below the 30-year norm of around 4.5 m/s over the same period, with winds only above on 7-8 Dec and 14-16 Dec, ECMWF shows.