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POWER: German Spot Power to Fall on Renewables

POWER

German spot power prices are expected to decline sharply for Thursday’s delivery amid higher renewables output, likely offsetting slightly higher demand. Prices on the German curve are pulling back today with further weakness in the European energy complex. 

  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 down 0.8% at 83.98 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 67.87 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 down 1.6% at 36.6 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is extending the recent decline, falling towards the lows of around €36.1/MWh from Aug 23 despite ongoing Norway maintenance.  Prices are under pressure from healthy storage, a lower recent geopolitical risk premium and with weaker prices across the energy complex.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is further extending this week’s losses, weighed on by further weakness in European gas prices. There will be no EUA auction today.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise sharply on the day to 18.45GW during base load on Thursday, compared with 3.64GW forecast for Wednesday. Solar PV output is also forecast to rise to 25.52GW during peak load on Thursday, up from 17.11GW forecast for Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for NW Europe suggested temperatures to remain above normal until 10 Sept after which they will fall below normal.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at a maximum of 62.75GW on Wednesday and of 63.21GW on Thursday, Entso-E data showed.
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