POWER
Poland’s Dec power contract climbed for its sixth consecutive session amid gains in EU coal and as mean temperatures in Warsaw are set to enter low single digits mid-week next week. However, losses in emissions kept gains somewhat capped. Wind forecasts still point to strong wind next week, with output seen as high around 7GW for some days – possibly weighing down the spot.
- Poland DEC 24 baseload power settled at PLN437.90/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN435/MWh on 14 Nov, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE. The contract reached another fresh high.
- EUA DEC 24 down 0.6% at 67.87 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal DEC 24 up 1.3% at 125 USD/MT at 15:28 BST.
- The Dec contract traded 18 times in 19 lots down from 26 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- December opened at PLN440/MWh – the high for the day – before dropping to PLN438/MWh and falling again to PLN437.50/MWh at the end of the session.
- Closer in, the day-ahead settled at PLN373.47/MWh for Saturday delivery, dropping from PLN524.85/MWh for Friday amid wind output forecasts to be at 4.38GW tomorrow compared to 2.83GW today, with lower demand adding downward pressure.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind is expected to rise further, reaching 6.63GW on 18 Nov (Mon) – which may keep weight on prices, however, with rising demand from the weekend prices could still be supported.
- Wind will then be between 1.76-7.34GW over 19-24 Nov – with the highest amount of wind estimated over 20-22 Nov – which may place sustained downward pressure on delivery costs.
- Average temperatures in Warsaw are now set to be above the seasonal norm over 16-20 Nov before flipping below the next day and being between 1-1.5C over 21-24 Nov.
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