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PPI Inflation Cools More Than Expected

US DATA
  • PPI final demand inflation surprisingly fell -0.5% M/M (cons +0.2%), pushing the annual rate down from 11.3% to 9.8% Y/Y (cons 10.4%).
  • Core measures of PPI (ex food & energy or ex food, energy & trade) also missed by two tenths at 0.2% M/M but that was more in line with yesterday’s core CPI miss with the Bloomberg survey not materially updated.
  • That said and very much at the margin, it’s potentially a faster decline than it looks vs the core CPI miss seeing its version of airfares increased +1.1% M/M vs the -8% M/M decline in CPI.
  • Initial claims meanwhile tick up 14k to 262k but were below consensus of 265k, from a downward revised 248k the prior week and outside of a payrolls reference week so likely to be downplayed.
  • Little immediate impact on 2Y Tsy yields before selling off 2.5bps and then giving most of it back over a space of 15 minutes to leaves yields -6.5bps on the day. 2s10s still sit at circa -40bps having been closer to -50bps prior to CPI yesterday at fresh post-2000 flats although still only back to late Fri/early Mon levels of inversion.
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  • PPI final demand inflation surprisingly fell -0.5% M/M (cons +0.2%), pushing the annual rate down from 11.3% to 9.8% Y/Y (cons 10.4%).
  • Core measures of PPI (ex food & energy or ex food, energy & trade) also missed by two tenths at 0.2% M/M but that was more in line with yesterday’s core CPI miss with the Bloomberg survey not materially updated.
  • That said and very much at the margin, it’s potentially a faster decline than it looks vs the core CPI miss seeing its version of airfares increased +1.1% M/M vs the -8% M/M decline in CPI.
  • Initial claims meanwhile tick up 14k to 262k but were below consensus of 265k, from a downward revised 248k the prior week and outside of a payrolls reference week so likely to be downplayed.
  • Little immediate impact on 2Y Tsy yields before selling off 2.5bps and then giving most of it back over a space of 15 minutes to leaves yields -6.5bps on the day. 2s10s still sit at circa -40bps having been closer to -50bps prior to CPI yesterday at fresh post-2000 flats although still only back to late Fri/early Mon levels of inversion.