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Pressure On The 10Y Bond Yield Eases

HUNGARY
  • Covid daily new cases continue to decrease with the 7D SMA falling below 800 (lowest level since early October), down from 9,300 (March 26 high) and from 1,080 the previous week. PM Orban recently mentioned that pandemic restrictions will start to ease when 5m people (50% population) receive at least a first dose of the Covid19 vaccine, a threshold that should be hit over the weekend.
  • People will then no longer be required to wear masks in public spaces, night curfew will end as will mandatory closing times for catering and entertainment venues (according to Bloomberg).
  • On Monday, we saw that NBH deputy governor Barnabas Virag mentioned in a briefing that inflation risks have risen and that the central bank should prepare for rate hike to curb inflationary pressures; June CPI will be 'key' in policy turn. This generated a sharp rally on the HUF against all major crosses.
  • Yesterday, the NBH decided to keep its 1W deposit rate at 0.75% at its weekly meeting (next policy meeting in on May 25).
  • There are no economic data coming out today.
  • Hungary 10Y yield has been retracing lower in the past few days after finding a local high of 3.22% on Tuesday (following a 50bps upside move amid rising inflationary pressures); next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 3.33%. On the downside, main support stands at 3.0%, followed by 2.77% (50D SMA).
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