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Pressured, 2-year Inflation Expectations Moderate

NZD

NZD/USD prints at $0.6330/35, ~0.4% softer from yesterday's closing levels.

  • The pair fell ~0.5% from peak to trough in the immediate aftermath of the inflation expectations release, the 50-day EMA is at $0.6336 a break through here opens the 200-day EMA at $0.6296.
  • 2-Year inflation expectations QoQ rose 3.3%, a moderation from the fresh cycle highs observed last quarter at 3.62%. However, the survey does show that wage growth expectations remain elevated (see this link for more details).
  • The moderation in inflation expectations may weigh on NZ yields, see chart below.

Fig 1: 2-Year Inflation Expectations vs NZ 2-Year Swap

Source: Market News International (MNI)/Bloomberg

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