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Previous Market Reactions To Core % M/M CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Ahead of the Oct CPI reading - market reactions on misses/beats vs consensus the last 3 releases, Core % M/M CPI:

  • Missed by 0.1pp in July, leading to a 2bp drop in 10Y Tsy yields and a 0.3% drop in the DXY dollar index
  • Missed by 0.2pp in Aug, leading to a 2bp drop in 10Y Tsy yields and a 0.3% drop in the DXY dollar index
  • Was in line in Sep, leading to an immediate 3bp rise in 10Y Tsy yields, but ended 3bp lower by end-session; +0.2% in the DXY dollar index but ended 0.3% lower by end-session.
So, recently, the reaction has been pretty much what one would expect - mixed on an in-line reading and directionally bullish bonds / weaker USD on a below-consensus print.
  • We have no reason to expect otherwise today on an outsized reading this time, given consensus is clustered (+0.4% M/M, with avg +0.38% and standard deviation of 0.07), though we've already led into the event with some Tsy weakness and USD strength.
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