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Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In Gilts Remains In Play

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, a strong bounce in Bund futures Wednesday resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. The break higher threatens the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery, potentially towards 133.45, the Aug 8 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support lies at 131.20, the Aug 23 low. A reversal lower and a break of this level would be seen as a bearish development.
  • A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact, however, a strong rally this week suggests the contract remains in a short-term corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. Yesterday’s gain resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA, at 94.85. A break would strengthen bullish conditions. MA studies continue to highlight a downtrend. The bear trigger has been defined at 91.19, the Aug 17 low. Initial support to watch lies at 92.38, the Aug 23 low.

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