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Price Signal Summary - FI Futures Remain Vulnerable

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis are unchanged and futures maintain a bullish short-term tone. Attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4181.33 today. A clear break of this average would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. Gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. First support to watch is 3960.50, May 26 low. The short-term outlook in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bullish following recent gains and the break above the 50-day EMA. Scope is seen for a climb towards 3883.00, Apr 21 high and the key resistance at 3944.00, Mar 29 high. A break of the latter would strengthen bullish conditions. Short-term support has been defined at 3576.00, May 19 low. Initial support lies at 3725.80, the 20-day EMA.
  • In FX, EURUSD continues to trade just ahead of resistance at 1.0769. This is where the top of a bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high, intersects today. The channel top marks a key short-term resistance where a break would highlight a strong bullish outlook. A reversal lower would instead open support at 1.0533 initially, the May 20 low. GBPUSD maintains a firmer short-term tone and attention is still on the key resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.2696 today. This level represents an important pivot level. Initial firm support is at 1.2438, May 20 low. USDJPY is bullish. Sights are on the bull trigger at 131.35, May 9 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Key S/T trend support has been defined at 126.36, May 24 low.
  • On the commodity front, Gold traded higher Friday, before pulling back. A firm resistance is at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1875.6 today. A break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. Initial support to watch is at $1828.6, Jun 1 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain in an uptrend. The contract last week cleared resistance at $116.43, Mar 7 high and the former contract high. This confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. $120.00 is being challenged, a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and open $122.00.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain soft. Price has cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low and a recent bear trigger. The contract has also breached 150.00. This opens 148.85, 1.236 projection of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing. Gilts have started the week on a softer note and the contract gapped lower at the open. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has also traded through 115.00, 2.00 projection of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing.
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