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Price Signal Summary - Gold Is Approaching Its Channel Base

  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain bullish following this week's strong rally. Futures have remained above the 50-day EMA, at 4568.46 today. The focus is on 4717.00 next, Nov 26 high ahead of the all-time high of 4740.50. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bullish theme despite pulling back from Wednesday’s high. The contract has recently breached 4186.00, Dec 1 high and traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Attention is on 4311.70 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 18 - 30 downleg. Support is seen at 4137.00, the Jul 7 low.
  • In FX, EURUSD sights are on 1.1383, the Nov 30 high and key short-term resistance. A break of this level is required to signal potential for a stronger short-term recovery. This would open 1.1454, the 50-day EMA and 1.1514, Nov 5 low. The bear trigger is unchanged at 1.1186/85, Nov 24 and Jul 1, 2020 low. GBPUSD remains vulnerable. This week’s break of support at 1.3195, Dec 1 low confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and opens 1.3135, the Dec 11 2020 low. 1.3338 is resistance, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY attention remains on Monday’s bullish engulfing reversal candle. The pattern suggests the pair has found a base. The 20-day EMA at 113.68 is still being challenged. A clear break would reinforce the reversal pattern and open the November high of 115.52. Key support is unchanged at 112.53, the Nov 30 low.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is trading close to the base of its bull channel that intersects at $1765.5 today. The channel is drawn from the Aug 9 low and represents a key short-term support. A break would strengthen the bearish condition and open $1721.7, the Sep 29 low. WTI futures remain firm. The focus is on $74.64 next, the 50-day EMA. Initial support lies at $69.52, the Dec 7 low.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain above the 20-day EMA, at 173.43 today. This week’s high of 175.02 is the bull trigger and a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A break of the 20-day EMA is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback. The Gilts trend outlook remains bullish. The focus is on 128.00 next, the Aug 31 high.

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