May 17, 2022 10:00 GMT
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- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis short-term gains are considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. Last week’s continuation lower and fresh cycle lows, reinforce the downtrend and signal scope for a continuation lower. The next objective is 3843.25, the Mar 25 2021 low (cont). In terms of resistance, the key short-term level is 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. Initial firm resistance is at 4099.00, the May 9 high. The primary trend direction in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains down. However, the contract is currently in a corrective cycle following the recovery from 3466.00, May 10 low. Price is trading at its recent highs ahead of the next resistance at 3740.30, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would improve a short-term bullish theme. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is 34666.00.
- In FX, EURUSD remains in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair traded lower last Thursday and cleared support at 1.0472, Apr 28 low - confirming a bear flag breakout and a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 1.0341, the Jan 3 2017 low and a key support. Resistance is at 1.0583, the 20-day EMA. GBPUSD is firmer today and the pair has traded cleared 1.2406, the May 9 high. This improves short-term conditions for bulls. Attention is on the next resistance at 1.2512, the 20-day EMA, where a break would open 1.2638, the May 4 high and a key resistance. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.2156, May 13 low. This is also the bear trigger. The USDJPY primary uptrend remains intact and last week’s move lower is likely a correction. Initial support has been defined at 127.52, May 12 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 131.35, May 9 high. A break would open 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing.
- On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable following last week’s resumption of the downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The yellow metal traded through the $1800.0 handle Monday. The focus is on $1780.4, the Jan 28 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures started the week on a firmer note, trading higher Monday. The contract has breached resistance at $111.37. May 5 high and this has improved the outlook for bulls. Note that $113.51, the Mar 24 high has also been cleared. A continuation higher would open $120.00 and the key resistance and trend high of $121.17, Mar 7 high.
- In the FI, Bund futures remain in a downtrend and recent gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on May 9 reinforced the bearish condition. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 150.49, the bear trigger. Firm trend resistance is 156.00, the Apr 28 high. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains down. However, last week’s gains resulted in a break of resistance at 119.79, the Apr 25 high. This signals potential for a stronger short-term corrective bounce and opens 121.84 next, 50.0% of the Mar 1 - May 9 bear leg. Key support has been defined at 116.87, May 9 low.