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Price Signal Summary - Reversal In Gold At Its Channel Base

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis rallied yesterday to reinstate a bullish tone and delivered a fresh all-time high of 4743.25. The failure however to hold onto yesterday’s gains refocuses attention on key support at 4589.76, the 50-day EMA. The outlook remains bullish above this EMA. A clear break of it would alter the picture. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have also failed to hold onto yesterday’s high of 4251.00 and the contract is weaker today. Key near-term support is at 4134.50, Dec 14 low where a break would expose 4053.50, Dec 3 low. For bulls, initial resistance is at yesterday’s high of 4251.00.
  • In FX, EURUSD is firmer but price remains below resistance at 1.1383, Nov 30 high. A break is required to signal potential for a stronger recovery. Support lies at 1.1222, the Dec 15 low and 1.1186, Nov 24 low. The latter is the bear trigger and the trend remains down. GBPUSD is firmer following yesterday’s rally and has breached the 20-day EMA. Further gains would signal scope for a climb to the 50-day EMA at 1.3439. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3163, the Dec 8 low. USDJPY broke out of its recent tight range yesterday and short-term conditions have improved for bulls. The bullish engulfing candle on Dec 6 is still in play and a resumption of strength would open 114.38 initially, 61.8% of the Nov 24 - 30 downleg. Support to watch is at 113.23, Dec 10 / 13 low. A break of this level would threaten the bull tone and expose the key support at 112.53, Nov 30 low.
  • On the commodity front, Gold on Wednesday attempted to clear the base of its bull channel from the Aug 9 low. At this stage, the move lower appears to be a false break and the strong recovery from $1753.7, Dec 15 low suggests the yellow metal is basing at the lower end of the channel. Watch resistance at $1815.6, the Nov 26 high. A breach would strengthen bullish conditions. The short-term trend outlook in WTI futures remains bullish. Support has been defined at $69.39, Dec 15 low. While this level remains intact, attention is on $73.34/74.05, the Dec 9 high and 50-day EMA. A break of support would allow for a deeper pullback near-term.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded through the 20-day EMA yesterday. Support at 173.40 though has remained intact and this needs to be cleared to signal a short-term reversal. The key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged at 175.02, Dec 8 high. The Gilts trend outlook remains bullish. Short-term support has been defined at 126.34, yesterday’s low. A break would sour the short-term tone. The trigger for a resumption of strength is 127.67, Dec 8 high.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
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