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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Crosses Above The 50-day EMA

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis have continued to extend this week’s gains. Attention remains on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4564.03 today. The average has been probed however, a clear break is still required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery that would open 4671.75 initially, Jan 18 high. Initial support to watch is 4438.50, the Feb 4 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded higher again today and price has crossed above the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4196.50. The EMA marks a key resistance point and a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery towards 4324.50, Jan 13 high. A reversal lower again though would refocus attention on 3990.50, Jan 24 low.
  • In FX,EURUSD is consolidating and trading closer to its recent highs. The recent consolidation appears to be a bull flag, reinforcing the current uptrend. The focus is on 1.1483/84 next, the Jan 14 and Feb 4 high. A break would resume bullish activity. Support is seen at 1.1331, the former bear channel top. GBPUSD maintains its short-term bullish theme following last week’s gains. The focus is on 1.3662 next, Jan 20 high. Support lies at 1.3491/3435, Feb 7 and Feb 1 low. USDJPY continues to climb and trend conditions remain bullish. The pair has breached initial resistance at 115.67/68, 76.4% of the Jan 4 - 24 downleg and the Jan 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 116.35, this year’s high on Jan 4 and the key bull trigger.
  • On the commodity front, Gold has continued to strengthen this week. The recovery has resulted in a break of resistance at $1822.2, the Jan 27 high. An extension would expose the firm resistance at $1853.9, Jan 25 high. Note that the recovery this week also suggests that the recent break of the bull channe,l drawn from the Aug 9, 2021 low, has again been a false one. WTI futures remain in a clear uptrend however the contract appears to have entered a corrective cycle. The focus is on a climb towards $94.13 next, 2.618 projection of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing. Support to watch is at $86.34, the Jan 31 low.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain vulnerable. The focus is on 164.82, the May 3, 2019 low (cont). Gilts trend conditions remain bearish. Sights are on the 120.00 psychological handle.

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