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USDCAD TECHS

Heading South

AUDUSD TECHS

Northbound

EURJPY TECHS

Breaches Key Short-Term Support

US TSYS

Late SOFR/Treasury Option Trade

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Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Impulsive Rally Extends

OUTLOOK
  • In the equity space, the S&P E-Minis trend condition remains bearish and price has traded lower today, delivering a fresh short-term low print of 3883.50. The contract has recently cleared the 50-day EMA, reinforcing the bearish theme. Attention is on 3902.01, 61.8% of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg. The level has been pierced, a clear break would open 3834.00, the Jul 19 low. The EUROSTOXX 50 contract traded to a fresh trend low on Monday. This reinforces bearish conditions and signals scope for an extension lower. 3456.00, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally, has been pierced. A clear break would open 3386.00, the Jul 15 low.
  • In FX, the EURUSD trend direction remains down. A fresh trend low of 0.9864 yesterday reinforces the bearish theme and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on the 0.9800 handle. The GBPUSD trend needle still points south and Monday’s fresh trend low reinforces current conditions. Sights are on 1.1412, the Mar 20 2020 low and the next major support. A break would strengthen bearish conditions. USDJPY continues to appreciate and extend this week’s impulsive bull run. The focus is on 144.67, 2.50 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing. The 145.00 handle appears exposed and a breach of this level would strengthen bullish conditions.
  • On the commodity front, Gold continues to trade above recent lows. The yellow metal remains in a clear short-term downtrend though and last week’s move lower reinforces this bearish condition. The focus is on $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and a key bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. In the {7I} Oil space, WTI futures remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp reversal. Key support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low has been pierced suggesting a resumption of the broader downtrend. A clear break would open $84.10 next, the Mar 15 low.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and short-term gains would be considered corrective. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. The focus is on 143.64, 2.382 projection of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing. Gilts remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August remains intact as price trades to fresh trend lows. Attention is on 104.69 next, 1.764 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing.
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  • In the equity space, the S&P E-Minis trend condition remains bearish and price has traded lower today, delivering a fresh short-term low print of 3883.50. The contract has recently cleared the 50-day EMA, reinforcing the bearish theme. Attention is on 3902.01, 61.8% of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg. The level has been pierced, a clear break would open 3834.00, the Jul 19 low. The EUROSTOXX 50 contract traded to a fresh trend low on Monday. This reinforces bearish conditions and signals scope for an extension lower. 3456.00, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally, has been pierced. A clear break would open 3386.00, the Jul 15 low.
  • In FX, the EURUSD trend direction remains down. A fresh trend low of 0.9864 yesterday reinforces the bearish theme and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on the 0.9800 handle. The GBPUSD trend needle still points south and Monday’s fresh trend low reinforces current conditions. Sights are on 1.1412, the Mar 20 2020 low and the next major support. A break would strengthen bearish conditions. USDJPY continues to appreciate and extend this week’s impulsive bull run. The focus is on 144.67, 2.50 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing. The 145.00 handle appears exposed and a breach of this level would strengthen bullish conditions.
  • On the commodity front, Gold continues to trade above recent lows. The yellow metal remains in a clear short-term downtrend though and last week’s move lower reinforces this bearish condition. The focus is on $1681.0, the Jul 21 low and a key bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. In the {7I} Oil space, WTI futures remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp reversal. Key support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low has been pierced suggesting a resumption of the broader downtrend. A clear break would open $84.10 next, the Mar 15 low.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and short-term gains would be considered corrective. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. The focus is on 143.64, 2.382 projection of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing. Gilts remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run that started early August remains intact as price trades to fresh trend lows. Attention is on 104.69 next, 1.764 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing.