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Q1 GDP Advance Data (0830ET) will...>

US DATA PREVIEW
US DATA PREVIEW: Q1 GDP Advance Data (0830ET) will obviously be weak given the
March COVID-19 lockdown, but how weak? BBG median is  -4.0% Q/Q ann.(would be
worst since Q1 14).
- The high estimate is 0.0% (Mizuho), the low -10.0% (UniCredit, though JPM not
far behind with -9.9%) - so clearly a negative figure fully expected, and as
such it's difficult to see what could constitute a downside surprise.
- A figure in positive territory would certainly be an upside surprise and would
lead to greater scrutiny of the internals (not to mention potential data
collection issues given COVID-19). PCE is expected to be the biggest negative
net contributor (inventories and business investment likely drags as well),
while net exports should contribute positively though largely due to a collapse
in imports.
- Main impact of course will be to provide a sense of the initial impact of the
lockdown which began in most of the country in the second half of March - in all
likelihood we'll be moving swiftly on after this release.

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