Q1 GDP Advance Data (0830ET) will...>

US DATA PREVIEW: Q1 GDP Advance Data (0830ET) will obviously be weak given the

March COVID-19 lockdown, but how weak? BBG median is  -4.0% Q/Q ann.(would be

worst since Q1 14).

- The high estimate is 0.0% (Mizuho), the low -10.0% (UniCredit, though JPM not

far behind with -9.9%) - so clearly a negative figure fully expected, and as

such it's difficult to see what could constitute a downside surprise.

- A figure in positive territory would certainly be an upside surprise and would

lead to greater scrutiny of the internals (not to mention potential data

collection issues given COVID-19). PCE is expected to be the biggest negative

net contributor (inventories and business investment likely drags as well),

while net exports should contribute positively though largely due to a collapse

in imports.

- Main impact of course will be to provide a sense of the initial impact of the

lockdown which began in most of the country in the second half of March - in all

likelihood we'll be moving swiftly on after this release.